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| Image from European Space Agency. |
Air pollution levels in parts of the world are dropping dramatically due to the coronavirus outbreak. This is a good thing.
The reduced economic activity as a result of stay-at-home orders has led to a significant reduction in levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants. This shouldn't come as a surprise. We're going to use less fossil fuels when everyone is hunkering down at home.
Researchers at Columbia University collected data on traffic and CO2 levels in New York in the early days of the pandemic. The data suggest that social distancing measures have led to a 35% decline in traffic levels from one year ago. The data also show that emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) have fallen by about 50% on certain days. There has been a notable drop in methane (CH4) as well.
According to one of the researchers, Professor Róisín Commane, this is the cleanest the air has ever been. "It is less than half of what we normally see in March," he said.
The findings in New York are very much like what is being seen in China and Italy. An article on climate website Carbon Brief, suggests that energy use and emissions in China dropped by 1/4 over a two week period. It's estimated that China's overall carbon emissions will drop by 1% this year.
Levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), another common air pollutant released when burning fossil fuels, have also fallen significantly in both China and Italy. With airplanes and cars around the world grinding to a halt, these trends will likely be seen in many other countries.
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| Image from NASA. |
Some experts believe the global shutdown will impact overall CO2 levels for 2020. It will depend on when we get control of the virus, but Prof Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia says that "most likely I think we will see something in the global emissions this year."
What happens with emissions later this year-and our longer-term relationship with the earth-will depend heavily on how governments boost economic activity once the virus is controlled. In the coming months, leaders will have an excellent chance to change course.
We should use this opportunity to rethink our relationship with the natural world, including how we use energy. It's time we take climate change and other environmental issues more seriously. Stimulus money should incentivize things like building and transportation efficiency and the use of renewable energy.
In the near future, I predict that governments will prioritize economic performance over environmental performance yet again. Then only when things get worse, like what happened with COVID-19, will we begin to act. It's human nature. Necessity is the mother of invention, after all.
I suspect, however, one change that will be embraced sooner rather than later is working remotely. If studies can show that productivity is maintained, or even improved, while working remotely, I think companies will be on board. This will be great news for air quality, the climate, and, more importantly, us.
I have a feeling this virus will be the catalyst for some great change. We won't see massive change overnight, but I think we'll begin to redesign our economies with nature in mind. We have to.